San Ramon Real Estate Market Update — September 18th, 2026

The San Ramon real estate market actually gave us several encouraging signs this week.

Inventory dropped to 60 homes, pending activity remained relatively consistent, and our turnover rate continued to improve. Unfortunately, much of that good news was overshadowed by a sharp jump in mortgage rates to nearly 7%.

That's particularly important as we head toward what is traditionally the slowest part of the real estate year.

Watch This Week's San Ramon Real Estate Market Update

This Week's San Ramon Real Estate Numbers

HOMES FOR SALE
This week: 60
Last week: 63

AVERAGE ASKING PRICE
This week: $1,862,000
Last week: $1,888,000

NEW PENDING SALES
This week: 8
Last week: 7

AVERAGE PENDING PRICE
This week: $1,746,000
Last week: $2,031,000

CLOSED SALES
This week: 7
Last week: 4

AVERAGE CLOSED PRICE
This week: $1,756,000
Last week: $1,660,000

The headline would normally be falling inventory and improving turnover.

But this week there's another number we have to pay attention to.

Mortgage rates jumped significantly and are now knocking on the door of 7%.

Let's take a closer look at what the broader market indicators are telling us.

San Ramon Housing Inventory Falls to 60 Homes

Inventory continued its downward trend this week, dropping from 63 homes to 60.

That's a significant improvement from where we were earlier this summer.

Inventory peaked at 94 homes in June, briefly leveled off around the mid-70s last month, and has now resumed its decline.

This is also consistent with the normal seasonal pattern.

As we move deeper into fall and toward the holidays, fewer homeowners typically decide to put their homes on the market.

That means I expect inventory to continue trending downward through the end of the year.

For sellers, fewer competing homes is good news.

For buyers, it could mean fewer choices even if overall demand remains relatively soft.

San Ramon Turnover Continues to Improve

As inventory comes down, our turnover rate should gradually improve.

That's exactly what happened this week, although the increase was only about one percentage point.

The encouraging part is the consistency we're starting to see in pending activity.

Seven homes went pending last week and eight went pending this week.

Those aren't huge numbers, but if we can continue producing a steady stream of pending sales while fewer homes enter the market, the relationship between supply and demand should improve.

We're still dealing with a slower-than-normal San Ramon market.

But falling inventory means we don't necessarily need a dramatic increase in buyer activity to see turnover improve.

Are San Ramon Homes Selling Below Asking?

Our over/under number continues to remain remarkably consistent.

The average San Ramon home is currently closing approximately 1% below its asking price.

Considering how slow transaction volume has been this year, I actually see that as a relatively healthy number.

Some homes are still receiving multiple offers and selling above asking.

Other homes sit longer, reduce their prices or negotiate before eventually selling below asking.

When you put everything together, buyers and sellers are still meeting remarkably close to the asking price.

That's a good indication that buyer and seller expectations haven't completely disconnected from one another.

This doesn't feel like a fire sale.

It feels like a market where buyers are selective and sellers need to be realistic.

What Is Happening With San Ramon Home Prices?

Our average sales price is beginning to move in the direction I expected based on the homes we've been watching move through the pending pipeline.

We are heading into a stretch where the 30-day rolling average closing price could fall below $1.7 million.

That shouldn't necessarily be interpreted as San Ramon home values suddenly dropping.

With our low transaction volume, the mix of homes closing during any particular period can move the average substantially.

When I look further ahead at the homes currently moving through escrow, we should eventually see more closings in the higher price ranges again.

That could push the rolling average back toward or above $1.9 million.

This is another reason why weekly and even monthly averages require context.

The price mix of the homes selling can affect the average just as much as changes in the value of an individual home.

What Is the Stock Market Telling Us?

I continue to watch the technology-heavy QQQ ETF because technology employment, stock compensation and investment portfolios play an important role in purchasing power throughout San Ramon and the Tri-Valley.

QQQ improved by roughly 1% this week based on the weekly numbers I've been tracking.

Technology stocks have continued to provide an important source of wealth and down-payment funds for many local buyers.

That matters even more when borrowing becomes expensive.

Strong stock portfolios don't eliminate the affordability challenges created by higher interest rates, but they can help some buyers increase their down payments and reduce how much they need to finance.

Mortgage Rates Jump to Nearly 7%

Unfortunately, this is the number that overshadowed most of the encouraging housing statistics this week.

The national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped from 6.76% to 6.95%.

That's a 19-basis-point increase in one week.

And at San Ramon home prices, that matters.

Higher rates increase monthly payments, reduce purchasing power and can force buyers to reconsider their target price range.

They can also make larger down payments increasingly valuable.

For buyers who have the ability to put more than 20% down, reducing the amount financed can mean substantial savings over the life of the loan.

But regardless of down payment size, moving back toward 7% financing creates another affordability challenge for an already selective buyer pool.

What Does This Mean for San Ramon Home Sellers?

Most of the local housing numbers moved in a positive direction this week.

That's good news for sellers.

Inventory is falling.

Turnover is gradually improving.

Homes continue to close relatively close to asking price.

But rising mortgage rates can quickly offset some of those benefits.

Sellers need to remember that buyers shop based not only on purchase price, but also on monthly payment.

A buyer who could comfortably afford your asking price at one interest rate may have a very different calculation if rates climb another quarter or half point.

That makes pricing and preparation especially important.

If affordability becomes more difficult, buyers are going to scrutinize value even more closely.

Your home needs to give them a compelling reason to make the numbers work.

What Does This Mean for San Ramon Home Buyers?

For buyers, the biggest challenge this week is obvious:

Borrowing became more expensive.

But that doesn't mean the opportunities in this market disappeared.

Inventory is declining, but buyer competition remains significantly lower than during faster markets.

That can still provide opportunities to negotiate on homes that aren't generating strong interest.

The key is understanding the individual property.

If a home has been sitting and the seller is motivated, the purchase price or other negotiated terms may help offset some of the increased financing cost.

On a particularly desirable home, however, there may still be competition.

That's why the strategy needs to be based on the house in front of you—not simply the overall market.

This Week's San Ramon Market Takeaway

This week's update started out remarkably positive.

Inventory is coming down.

Turnover is slowly improving.

Homes continue to sell within roughly 1% of asking price.

And while our rolling average sales price is entering a softer stretch, the homes coming through the pipeline suggest we could see higher price averages return afterward.

Then we get to mortgage rates.

And that's the number capable of changing the tone.

We were already heading toward the traditionally slower fall and holiday season with a housing market that has been relatively soft all year.

If borrowing costs continue climbing, they could put even more pressure on buyer affordability and transaction volume.

San Ramon is already trending toward fewer total home sales this year than last year.

Continued rate increases would make it even more difficult for transaction volume to recover before the end of 2026.

But there's an important counterbalance.

Inventory is also falling.

That means we're not necessarily heading into fall with an overwhelming amount of supply sitting on the market.

So once again, we end up with a San Ramon market where several different forces are pulling in opposite directions.

The local housing statistics looked pretty solid this week.

Now we're watching to see whether mortgage rates allow that momentum to continue.

Frequently Asked Questions About the San Ramon Housing Market

Is San Ramon housing inventory going down?

Yes. Inventory dropped from 63 homes last week to 60 this week and has fallen significantly from its June peak of 94 homes. Inventory also typically declines as we move deeper into fall and toward the holidays.

Is the San Ramon real estate market improving?

There are encouraging signs. Inventory is falling, pending activity has become more consistent and turnover is gradually improving. However, higher mortgage rates could work against that progress by reducing buyer purchasing power.

What are mortgage rates right now?

The national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached approximately 6.95% this week, up from 6.76% the week before. At San Ramon price points, changes in mortgage rates can have a meaningful impact on monthly payments and affordability.

Are San Ramon homes selling below asking price?

Yes, but only slightly. The average home is currently closing approximately 1% below asking price. Considering the slower transaction environment, the relatively small difference suggests buyers and sellers remain reasonably aligned on value.

Are San Ramon home prices falling?

Our rolling average sales price is moving lower in the near term, but low transaction volume means the types and price ranges of homes closing can move the average substantially. Upcoming pending sales suggest we could see higher-priced closings return later.

Is fall a good time to sell a home in San Ramon?

Fall generally brings fewer listings and fewer buyers. This year, declining inventory could benefit sellers by reducing competition, but higher mortgage rates mean buyers may also become even more price-sensitive.

Wondering What This Market Means for Your Home?

Market statistics tell us what's happening across San Ramon, but they can't tell you exactly what your home is worth or what strategy makes the most sense for your family.

If you're thinking about selling—or simply want to understand your options—we're happy to sit down with you, look at your home and the current market, and help you create a plan.

Selling or buying a home can be stressful and confusing, but it doesn't have to be.