San Ramon Real Estate Market Update — September 4th, 2026
The San Ramon real estate market continues to reject broad generalizations.
Inventory fell below 70 homes this week, but buyer activity slowed again—and we're continuing to see dramatically different results from one property to another.
Some homes are attracting immediate attention and competition. Others are sitting on the market without much activity.
That's why I think the best way to describe today's market is:
It isn't simply a buyer's market or a seller's market. It's a property-specific market.
Watch This Week's San Ramon Real Estate Market Update
This Week's San Ramon Real Estate Numbers
HOMES FOR SALE
This week: 69
Last week: 72
AVERAGE ASKING PRICE
This week: $1,910,000
Last week: $1,916,000
NEW PENDING SALES
This week: 5
Last week: 9
AVERAGE PENDING PRICE
This week: $1,652,000
Last week: $1,470,000
CLOSED SALES
This week: 7
Last week: 7
AVERAGE CLOSED PRICE
This week: $2,136,000
Last week: $1,842,000
The headline this week is falling inventory combined with inconsistent buyer activity.
Inventory dropped below 70 homes, which is encouraging as we move toward the fall market.
At the same time, new pending sales fell from nine last week to five this week.
That combination reinforces something we've seen throughout 2026: some indicators improve while others struggle to keep up.
Let's take a closer look at what the broader market indicators are telling us.
San Ramon Housing Inventory Falls Below 70 Homes
Inventory declined by three homes this week, moving from 72 to 69 active and coming-soon homes.
Three homes isn't a dramatic change, but getting back below 70 is encouraging.
The reduction also appears to have been driven more by a lack of new listings than by an increase in homes going into contract.
Only five homes went pending this week.
As we move further into fall, I expect fewer homeowners to bring properties onto the market. If that happens, overall inventory should continue declining even if buyer activity remains relatively modest.
That could eventually create a more favorable supply-and-demand balance.
San Ramon Home Sales Remain Slower Than Normal
Despite the decline in inventory, our turnover indicator actually slipped by about one percentage point this week.
The reason is simple: we didn't have enough new pending sales.
Only five homes entered contract compared with nine last week.
However, the seasonal decline in inventory could create an opportunity for turnover to improve quickly.
If we can string together a couple of weeks with close to or above 10 new pending sales, while relatively few new homes enter the market, our turnover rate could improve significantly.
For now, though, San Ramon remains a relatively low-turnover market.
Are San Ramon Homes Selling Below Asking?
Our over/under indicator improved this week.
Last week, homes were closing an average of more than 1% below asking price, the largest gap we'd seen this year.
This week, homes are still closing below asking on average, but the difference has moved back to less than 1%.
That's encouraging.
It also keeps us in a range where I don't think either buyers or sellers have a particularly strong advantage based purely on the sale-to-list-price ratio.
The bigger story remains how much the result can vary from one property to another.
What Is Happening With San Ramon Home Prices?
One of the more encouraging parts of this week's numbers is what happened with our average sales price.
The 30-day rolling average closing price increased, while our over/under asking indicator improved at the same time.
That's somewhat unusual.
Throughout much of this year, we've often seen our sale-to-list-price numbers improve when lower-priced homes were driving the market because those properties tend to have deeper buyer pools and more competition.
This week, however, we're seeing indications of stronger activity at higher price points while sellers are also getting closer to their asking prices.
That combination is worth watching.
It's only one week, and our sample sizes remain small, but improvement in both indicators at the same time is an encouraging sign.
What Is the Stock Market Telling Us?
I continue to watch the technology-heavy QQQ ETF because the health of the technology sector can have an outsized impact on buyer confidence and purchasing power throughout San Ramon and the Tri-Valley.
QQQ remains around 16% higher for the year and improved modestly again this week.
Technology continues to be an important source of employment, income and wealth for many of the households purchasing homes in our area.
That means continued strength in the tech sector can help provide support for our local housing market, even when other economic indicators are less encouraging.
Mortgage Rates Are Moving in the Wrong Direction
Mortgage rates have unfortunately continued to creep higher.
The national average for a 30-year fixed mortgage is now around 6.7%.
For much of the year, rates have stayed in a relatively narrow range, but even modest increases matter when you're talking about San Ramon home prices.
Higher borrowing costs affect purchasing power and monthly payments, and they give buyers another reason to be selective.
Rates haven't stopped homes from selling.
But they continue to make both buying and selling a home more difficult.
That's another reason why strategy matters so much in today's market.
What Does This Mean for San Ramon Home Sellers?
For sellers, this market continues to reinforce one important lesson:
You cannot rely on the overall market to sell your home for you.
In a strong seller's market, homeowners can sometimes make mistakes with pricing or preparation and still receive significant buyer interest.
Today's market isn't nearly as forgiving.
You can have two similar homes in the same general area experience completely different outcomes.
One may receive multiple offers immediately.
Another may sit for weeks.
The difference can come down to:
Pricing
Condition
Presentation
Location
Competition
Marketing
Or simply whether the property gives buyers a compelling reason to act
That's why the strategy for selling one San Ramon home may be completely different from the strategy for another.
The question isn't simply, "How is the market?"
The better question is:
"How is the market for my house?"
What Does This Mean for San Ramon Home Buyers?
Buyers need to approach the market the same way.
There are homes where you may have time to negotiate, consider your options and potentially secure favorable terms.
There are also homes where several buyers may immediately recognize the same value you do.
That's why broad statements like "it's a buyer's market" can actually be misleading.
A home that has been sitting for 40 days may offer tremendous negotiating leverage.
A beautifully prepared home in a desirable location that came onto the market yesterday may offer very little.
Your strategy needs to be based on the individual property—not a broad label for the entire San Ramon market.
That's one of the biggest advantages buyers have right now.
Most of the time, you can be more thoughtful about the decision.
But when the right property comes along, you still need to recognize when competition is likely.
This Week's San Ramon Market Takeaway
This was another fairly typical week for the 2026 San Ramon housing market.
Some indicators improved.
Others struggled.
Inventory moved in the right direction and fell back below 70 homes.
Pending sales, however, dropped again.
Our over/under asking indicator improved.
Our average closing price also improved.
Mortgage rates moved in the wrong direction.
The result is a market that continues to feel relatively flat rather than clearly moving up or down.
And a flat market leaves plenty of room for individual properties to experience completely different outcomes.
One home can stand out, attract multiple buyers and move quickly.
Another can sit and struggle to gain traction.
That's why this market rejects generalizations.
There isn't one statement about the San Ramon market that applies equally to every home.
More than almost any market we've experienced in recent years, this is a property-to-property market.
For sellers, that means understanding exactly where your home fits among the competition.
For buyers, it means understanding exactly how much competition exists for the home you're considering.
The goal isn't to determine whether the entire market is good or bad.
It's to understand the market for the specific property you're selling or buying well enough to make the best decision for you and your family.
Frequently Asked Questions About the San Ramon Housing Market
Is San Ramon currently a buyer's market or seller's market?
I don't think either label accurately describes the entire San Ramon market right now. Some homes are attracting significant competition while others are sitting. The strength of the market depends heavily on the specific property's price, condition, location and competition.
Is San Ramon housing inventory going down?
Yes. Inventory fell from 72 homes last week to 69 this week. With fewer homeowners typically listing properties during the fall, inventory could continue declining as we move toward the end of the year.
Are San Ramon homes selling below asking price?
On average, yes, but only slightly. The gap improved this week and moved back to less than 1% below asking. At that level, I don't see a significant overall advantage for either buyers or sellers.
Are higher-priced San Ramon homes starting to sell?
There are some encouraging signs. Our average closing price increased this week while the average sale-to-list-price ratio also improved. With relatively few weekly transactions, we'll need to see whether that trend continues before drawing a larger conclusion.
Why are some San Ramon homes selling quickly while others sit?
Buyers have more choices and are more selective than they were during faster markets. Pricing, preparation, condition, location and competition can create dramatically different results even for homes that appear similar on paper.
Is now a good time to sell a home in San Ramon?
That depends much more on your individual property and situation than on the overall market.
Today's market can still produce excellent results for sellers, but understanding how your specific home compares with the competition is more important than ever.
Wondering What This Market Means for Your Home?
Market statistics tell us what's happening across San Ramon, but they can't tell you exactly what your home is worth or what strategy makes the most sense for your family.
If you're thinking about selling—or simply want to understand your options—we're happy to sit down with you, look at your home and the current market, and help you create a plan.
Selling or buying a home can be stressful and confusing, but it doesn't have to be.