The San Ramon real estate market remains slow, but this week gave us a few encouraging signs.
Inventory dropped from 62 homes to 57, new pending sales jumped from three to eight, and mortgage rates finally moved slightly lower after several weeks at 7.40%.
None of those changes are dramatic enough to suddenly call this a healthy market.
But after an especially slow stretch, movement in the right direction is worth paying attention to.
Watch This Week's San Ramon Real Estate Market Update
This Week's San Ramon Real Estate Numbers
This week: 57
Last week: 62
AVERAGE ASKING PRICE
This week: $1,914,000
Last week: $1,890,000
NEW PENDING SALES
This week: 8
Last week: 3
AVERAGE PENDING PRICE
This week: $1,642,000
Last week: $2,227,000
CLOSED SALES
This week: 5
Last week: 5
AVERAGE CLOSED PRICE
This week: $1,968,000
Last week: $1,897,000
The headline this week is improving buyer activity.
Eight homes went pending compared with only three the week before, inventory moved back below 60, and mortgage rates finally ticked lower.
Let's take a closer look at the broader market indicators.
San Ramon Housing Inventory Drops to 57 Homes
Inventory acted much more like we would normally expect for late October this week.
We dropped from 62 homes to 57 active and coming-soon homes.
That's a welcome reversal after inventory unexpectedly increased over the previous couple of weeks.
The eight new pending sales certainly helped.
Fall typically brings fewer new listings as homeowners become less interested in putting their homes on the market heading toward Thanksgiving and the holidays.
If pending activity can remain reasonably steady while fewer new listings come onto the market, inventory should continue declining through the end of the year.
For sellers, that means less competition.
For buyers, it means the number of available choices could continue shrinking even though the overall market remains slow.
San Ramon Turnover Improves
The combination of lower inventory and stronger pending sales helped our turnover indicator improve this week.
We're still below 50% of what I consider normal turnover, so I wouldn't describe San Ramon as a healthy or fast-moving market yet.
But this is a meaningful improvement from last week, when turnover had fallen below 35%.
A healthier fall market would typically be somewhere closer to the 50% to 75% range.
We're not there.
But eight pending sales is a much better foundation than the three we saw the week before.
If we can string together several weeks like this while inventory continues declining, our turnover numbers could begin looking considerably healthier.
San Ramon Homes Move Further Below Asking
While turnover improved, our over/under asking indicator moved in the opposite direction.
Homes are now closing approximately 1.2% below their asking prices on average.
That's still a relatively small difference, particularly considering how slowly the market has been moving.
But it does indicate that buyers are gaining some negotiating leverage.
There are still San Ramon homes selling above asking.
At the same time, we have a significant number of properties that have been sitting on the market for extended periods.
When those homes finally sell, they're more likely to involve price reductions or negotiations—and those sales can pull our overall sale-to-list-price number lower.
If the gap continues widening, that would become stronger evidence of a buyer advantage.
For now, I would describe it as a slight shift toward buyers rather than a dramatic change in market power.
What Is Happening With San Ramon Home Prices?
Our average closing price continued to improve this week.
The 30-day rolling average has been recovering after falling sharply through September and early October.
That improvement reflects more activity at higher price points over the past several weeks.
And based on the higher-priced homes that went pending recently, I expect that average to remain elevated for another couple of weeks.
But there's an important caveat.
This week's eight pending homes averaged only about $1.642 million.
That means the recent spike in the average closing price may be relatively short-lived.
Once those lower-priced pending homes begin closing, they could pull the average back down again.
That's why I continue to caution against interpreting short-term changes in the average sales price as changes in the value of every San Ramon home.
The mix of properties selling matters enormously when transaction volume is this low.
What Is the Stock Market Telling Us?
The technology-heavy QQQ ETF finished October 23 at $704.40 compared with $709.80 the previous Friday—a decline of roughly 0.8% for the week.
There was considerably more volatility during the week than that final number suggests, including a nearly 3% decline on Thursday before the fund stabilized Friday.
That's worth watching because technology employment, stock compensation and investment portfolios remain important sources of purchasing power for San Ramon and Tri-Valley buyers.
But one volatile week doesn't establish a long-term trend.
QQQ remains an indicator I'll continue watching alongside mortgage rates because both can influence buyer confidence and affordability in our local market.
Mortgage Rates Finally Move Lower
We finally received some encouraging news on mortgage rates.
Freddie Mac reported the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.32% on October 22, down from 7.40% the week before.
That's still high.
But after rates climbed consistently through September and then remained at 7.40% for two consecutive weeks, seeing the line finally move lower is welcome.
Mortgage rates continue to be one of the biggest obstacles preventing the San Ramon housing market from developing stronger momentum.
At our price points, even relatively small rate changes can meaningfully affect monthly payments.
So I wouldn't call a move from 7.40% to 7.32% a game changer.
But it's certainly better than another increase.
What Does This Mean for San Ramon Home Sellers?
For sellers, this week's numbers reinforce something we've been saying all year:
There are still buyers for the right homes.
Eight properties went pending this week despite a very slow overall market.
And some homes continue to sell quickly and above asking.
The important distinction is that buyers aren't automatically excited about every property anymore.
Your home needs to earn their attention.
That could mean:
Great condition
Thoughtful preparation
Strong photography and marketing
A desirable location
An attractive floor plan
Or pricing that clearly represents value
Homes that check those boxes can still perform extremely well.
Homes that don't may sit—and eventually need to negotiate.
This market rewards sellers who make their homes stand out.
What Does This Mean for San Ramon Home Buyers?
For buyers, this remains one of the better environments we've had in years to patiently look for an opportunity.
Homes are now closing about 1.2% below asking on average, and many properties have been sitting long enough that sellers are becoming more flexible.
This isn't a fire sale.
The best homes can still attract multiple interested buyers and sell quickly.
But you don't necessarily have to assume that every listing requires an immediate, aggressive offer.
There are opportunities to negotiate on:
Price
Credits
Contingencies
Closing timelines
Repairs
Other terms that might have been difficult to request in a faster market
The key is being patient and understanding the competition for the specific home you're considering.
This Week's San Ramon Market Takeaway
This was a moderately encouraging week.
Inventory dropped.
Pending sales increased significantly.
Higher-priced homes continued closing.
And mortgage rates finally moved slightly lower.
None of those changes represent a dramatic turnaround.
This is still a very slow San Ramon market.
But when we've spent the past month watching turnover struggle and buyer activity remain incredibly weak, even modest improvement matters.
The most interesting part of this market continues to be the difference between individual homes.
Some properties sit for weeks or months.
Others come onto the market, attract immediate attention and sell quickly—sometimes above asking.
That's the opportunity for sellers.
If your home is improved, prepared and presented well, buyers can still get excited about it.
And the slow market creates an opportunity for buyers too.
With fewer buyers competing for homes overall, patient buyers have a better chance to negotiate with sellers who need or want to make a move.
So the market remains slow.
But this week provided an important reminder:
Slow does not mean nothing is selling—and it doesn't mean there aren't opportunities on both sides of the transaction.
Frequently Asked Questions About the San Ramon Housing Market
Is the San Ramon real estate market still slow?
Yes. Turnover remains below 50% of what I consider normal, so overall transaction activity is still relatively weak. However, eight homes went pending this week compared with only three last week, which is an encouraging improvement.
Is San Ramon housing inventory falling again?
Yes. Inventory dropped from 62 homes to 57 this week. That's more consistent with the seasonal pattern we typically see heading toward the holidays.
Are San Ramon homes selling below asking price?
On average, homes are currently closing approximately 1.2% below asking price. That's a slight advantage for buyers, although individual results vary considerably. Some well-positioned homes continue to sell above asking.
Are San Ramon home prices increasing?
Our rolling average closing price has recently moved higher as more expensive homes reached the closing table. However, this week's pending homes averaged around $1.642 million, so the increase in the average closing price may be temporary.
Are mortgage rates finally coming down?
They moved slightly lower this week. Freddie Mac reported an average 30-year fixed rate of 7.32% on October 22, down from 7.40% the previous week.
Is now a good time to buy a home in San Ramon?
For buyers who can comfortably manage today's financing costs, the slow market can create opportunities. There is generally less competition, more time to evaluate properties and more opportunity to negotiate than during faster markets.
Is now a good time to sell a home in San Ramon?
It depends on your property.
The market is slow overall, but attractive, properly priced and well-presented homes can still generate strong interest.
The difference between a home that sells quickly and one that sits can be substantial in the current market.
Wondering What This Market Means for Your Home?
Market statistics tell us what's happening across San Ramon, but they can't tell you exactly what your home is worth or what strategy makes the most sense for your family.
If you're thinking about selling—or simply want to understand your options—we're happy to sit down with you, look at your home and the current market, and help you create a plan.
Selling or buying a home can be stressful and confusing, but it doesn't have to be.