The San Ramon real estate market had a difficult week by most measures.
Inventory climbed from 56 homes to 62, only three homes went pending, and our turnover rate dropped back below 35% of normal.
But there are also a couple of surprisingly positive things happening underneath those numbers.
Homes that actually sell are still closing almost exactly at their asking prices, and buyers currently have more time and negotiating flexibility than they've had in years.
Even in a slow market, there are opportunities on both sides of the transaction.
Watch This Week's San Ramon Real Estate Market Update
This Week's San Ramon Real Estate Numbers
HOMES FOR SALE
This week: 62
Last week: 56
AVERAGE ASKING PRICE
This week: $1,890,000
Last week: $1,903,000
NEW PENDING SALES
This week: 3
Last week: 6
AVERAGE PENDING PRICE
This week: $2,227,000
Last week: $1,602,000
CLOSED SALES
This week: 5
Last week: 7
AVERAGE CLOSED PRICE
This week: $1,897,000
Last week: $1,831,000
The headline this week is slow activity—but surprisingly resilient values.
Almost every activity indicator moved in the wrong direction.
But the homes that are selling continue to close remarkably close to their asking prices.
Let's take a closer look at what the broader market indicators are telling us.
San Ramon Housing Inventory Climbs Back Above 60 Homes
Inventory increased again this week, moving from 56 homes to 62 active and coming-soon homes.
That's unusual for this point in the year.
Normally, fall is when San Ramon inventory begins steadily declining as fewer homeowners choose to list heading into the holiday season.
This year, we're seeing the opposite movement over the past couple of weeks.
The main problem isn't necessarily a flood of new listings.
It's a lack of homes leaving the market through pending sales.
Only three homes went pending this week.
At that pace, it's difficult for inventory to come down even if relatively few new homes are being listed.
We'll need to see a meaningful improvement in pending activity before inventory gets back toward what we'd normally expect heading into the holidays.
San Ramon Turnover Drops Below 35%
Three new pending sales also took a significant toll on our turnover indicator.
We're now back below 35% of what I consider normal turnover for this time of year.
That's unquestionably slow.
And unlike earlier this fall, when declining inventory was gradually helping turnover improve, we're now seeing inventory climb at the same time buyer activity is falling.
That makes improving the turnover number more difficult.
I expect us to remain in a low-turnover environment for the foreseeable future unless we suddenly see several stronger weeks of pending activity.
But slow turnover doesn't necessarily mean falling home values.
And this week's next indicator is a good example of that.
San Ramon Homes Are Still Selling Almost Exactly at Asking Price
With turnover below 35%, you might expect sellers to be accepting substantially lower prices.
They're not.
Our average closing price is currently within less than one-tenth of 1% of the average asking price.
At San Ramon price points, that's essentially even.
That continues to be one of the most surprising—and encouraging—parts of the 2026 market.
Transaction volume has been slow almost all year.
Homes are taking longer to sell.
Buyers have become much more selective.
Yet the homes that ultimately close are still selling extremely close to asking price.
I think that tells us two things.
First, San Ramon remains a highly desirable place to live.
Second, sellers are generally becoming more realistic about where they need to price their homes.
We aren't seeing a market where sellers across the board are being forced into dramatic discounts.
What Is Happening With San Ramon Home Prices?
Our average sales price improved this week after falling fairly dramatically since the beginning of September.
The 30-day rolling average closing price is beginning to recover, which suggests we've recently seen more activity at higher price points.
That doesn't suddenly change the underlying value of San Ramon homes.
With relatively few transactions, changes in the mix of homes selling can move the average considerably.
But there's another encouraging sign in the pending numbers.
The three homes that went pending this week had an average asking price of approximately $2.227 million.
That's obviously an extremely small sample size.
But if those higher-priced homes close over the next several weeks, they should help continue pulling the average closing price upward.
After several weeks where lower price ranges dominated activity, it's encouraging to see some movement toward the higher end again.
What Is the Stock Market Telling Us?
The technology-heavy QQQ ETF had a difficult week, finishing October 16 at $709.80 compared with $751.27 the prior Friday—a decline of roughly 5.5%.
That's a meaningful weekly move and something worth watching because technology employment, stock compensation and investment portfolios play such an important role in the Tri-Valley buyer pool.
At the same time, one volatile week doesn't automatically translate into weaker housing demand.
The bigger question is whether the decline develops into a sustained trend.
If technology stocks recover, this week's movement may ultimately have very little impact on the housing market.
If weakness continues, it could eventually affect buyer confidence, down-payment funds and purchasing power.
For now, it's another indicator to keep an eye on rather than a reason to draw a dramatic conclusion.
Mortgage Rates Finally Stop Climbing
There was at least one piece of good news on the affordability front this week.
Mortgage rates didn't increase.
Freddie Mac reported the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.40% for the second consecutive week.
That's still a very difficult number for buyers.
But after rates increased from 6.71% in early September to 7.40% in early October, simply having a week without another increase is welcome.
Mortgage rates remain the biggest obstacle preventing this market from developing significantly more momentum.
At San Ramon prices, financing costs have an enormous impact on monthly payments.
Until rates begin moving meaningfully lower, affordability will continue putting pressure on buyer demand.
What Does This Mean for San Ramon Home Sellers?
There is still a very clear lane for sellers to succeed in this market.
The proof is in our sale-to-list-price numbers.
Despite incredibly slow turnover, homes are still selling essentially at asking price on average.
But that doesn't mean every home will.
The properties attracting buyers tend to give them a compelling reason to act.
That could be exceptional condition.
It could be location.
It could be thoughtful preparation and presentation.
Or it could simply be a price that immediately makes sense compared with the competition.
In this market, you can't rely on buyer urgency to overcome mistakes.
You have to earn the buyer's attention.
If you prepare the property correctly and position it appropriately, there are still buyers willing to compete for good San Ramon homes.
What Does This Mean for San Ramon Home Buyers?
For buyers, this may be one of the better environments we've had in quite some time to patiently look for value.
That's different from saying San Ramon is having a fire sale.
It isn't.
Homes are still maintaining their values remarkably well.
But only three homes went pending this week.
That tells you something about the amount of competition currently in the market.
You no longer have to assume you're going to be fighting a dozen other buyers for every property.
Sellers are also becoming more flexible—not necessarily only on purchase price, but potentially on timing, contingencies, credits and other terms.
Patient and intentional buyers can find opportunities in this market.
That doesn't mean lowballing every seller.
It means understanding which properties have competition and which ones don't—and structuring your offer accordingly.
This Week's San Ramon Market Takeaway
This was a difficult week for most of our market indicators.
Inventory increased.
Pending sales fell to only three.
Turnover dropped below 35%.
QQQ had a difficult week.
And mortgage rates remain at 7.40%.
On the surface, there's not much to celebrate.
But there are two positive takeaways that I think matter quite a bit.
For sellers:
Homes are still selling essentially at their asking prices.
That tells us buyers haven't disappeared.
They're simply more selective.
If you put in the work to prepare your property, make it compelling and price it appropriately, there is still a path to an excellent result.
For buyers:
You finally have room to be patient.
We're not in a fire-sale environment where every seller is desperate.
But we're also no longer in a market where buyers routinely need to make rushed decisions while competing against a dozen other offers.
You can evaluate the home.
You can look carefully at the price.
You can negotiate.
And in the right situation, you may be able to find a genuinely good opportunity.
So yes, this is a slow market.
But a slow market isn't necessarily a bad market.
For sellers who execute well and buyers who remain patient and intentional, there are still opportunities worth focusing on.
Frequently Asked Questions About the San Ramon Housing Market
Is the San Ramon real estate market slowing down?
Yes. Only three homes went pending this week, and our turnover indicator fell below 35% of normal. That's a very slow level of transaction activity.
Is San Ramon housing inventory increasing?
Yes. Inventory increased from 56 homes last week to 62 this week. That's unusual for this point in the fall, when inventory would normally be declining as we approach the holidays.
Are San Ramon home prices falling?
The market remains much more stable than the low transaction volume might suggest. Homes that close are currently selling within less than one-tenth of 1% of their asking prices on average. Weekly and monthly average prices can fluctuate considerably based on the mix of homes that happen to sell.
Are sellers negotiating in San Ramon?
Some are. Buyers generally have more time and leverage than they did in faster markets, particularly on homes that have been sitting without significant interest. However, attractive and well-priced properties can still receive strong offers.
Are mortgage rates still going up?
Not this week. Freddie Mac reported the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.40% on October 15, unchanged from the previous week.
Is now a good time to buy a home in San Ramon?
For some buyers, the slower market creates opportunities that haven't existed in years. There is generally less competition, more time to evaluate properties and more opportunity to negotiate. Higher mortgage rates remain the biggest drawback.
Is now a good time to sell a home in San Ramon?
It depends on your property and your goals.
Slow turnover means sellers need to work harder to attract buyers.
But homes that connect with the market are still closing remarkably close to their asking prices, so sellers who price, prepare and present their homes correctly can still achieve strong results.
Wondering What This Market Means for Your Home?
Market statistics tell us what's happening across San Ramon, but they can't tell you exactly what your home is worth or what strategy makes the most sense for your family.
If you're thinking about selling—or simply want to understand your options—we're happy to sit down with you, look at your home and the current market, and help you create a plan.
Selling or buying a home can be stressful and confusing, but it doesn't have to be.