San Ramon Real Estate Market Update — October 9th, 2026
The San Ramon real estate market continues to move forward—but the cost of borrowing money is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
Mortgage rates have climbed to 7.40%, their highest level in nearly three years, while the homes generating the most consistent activity continue to be concentrated toward the lower end of the San Ramon price range.
That doesn't mean San Ramon home values are suddenly collapsing.
Instead, we're continuing to see a market where affordability has a major influence on which homes are selling and which homes are struggling to gain traction.
Watch This Week's San Ramon Real Estate Market Update
This Week's San Ramon Real Estate Numbers
HOMES FOR SALE
This week: 56
Last week: 54
AVERAGE ASKING PRICE
This week: $1,903,000
Last week: $1,878,000
NEW PENDING SALES
This week: 6
Last week: 6
AVERAGE PENDING PRICE
This week: $1,602,000
Last week: $1,689,000
CLOSED SALES
This week: 7
Last week: 10
AVERAGE CLOSED PRICE
This week: $1,831,000
Last week: $1,440,000
The headline this week is affordability.
Inventory remains relatively low, turnover is gradually improving and homes continue to sell very close to their asking prices.
But mortgage rates have continued climbing—and the pressure appears to be showing up most clearly at the higher price points.
Let's take a closer look at the broader market indicators.
San Ramon Housing Inventory Remains Below 60 Homes
Inventory increased slightly this week, moving from 54 homes to 56 active and coming-soon homes.
But the more important number is still 60.
We haven't consistently remained below 60 homes since early spring.
And while 56 homes isn't exceptionally low inventory by historical standards, it feels significantly different after spending much of the past six months dealing with inventory levels that reached into the 70s, 80s and even higher.
For sellers, lower inventory means fewer competing homes.
For buyers, it means fewer options—even though demand remains relatively restrained.
That combination is one of the reasons home values have been able to remain relatively stable despite a very slow year for transaction volume.
San Ramon Turnover Moves Back Above 40%
With inventory declining from its summer highs, our turnover rate has gradually improved.
We're now back above 40% of what I consider a normal turnover rate for this time of year.
That's still slow.
And it would improve much faster if we were consistently seeing higher pending numbers.
Only six homes went pending this week—the same as last week.
But fall is normally when turnover begins slowing anyway.
Because we've already spent most of the year operating at turnover levels that resemble a normal fall market, I don't expect the seasonal decline to feel nearly as dramatic this year.
If inventory continues to stay low, even modest pending activity should help keep turnover from deteriorating significantly.
Are San Ramon Homes Selling Over or Under Asking?
Our over/under number continues to bounce back and forth across the asking-price line.
One week we're slightly above.
The next we're slightly below.
This week, the average home closed for approximately $5,000 below its asking price.
At San Ramon price points, that's essentially neutral.
It does not indicate a meaningful advantage for buyers or sellers.
And that's been one of the most consistent themes of this year's market.
Even though homes are taking longer to sell and transaction volume remains low, the homes that do sell are generally closing very close to their asking prices.
Some properties generate competition and sell above asking.
Others require price reductions or negotiations.
When everything is averaged together, the difference remains remarkably small.
What Is Happening With San Ramon Home Prices?
This is where the effect of higher borrowing costs becomes particularly interesting.
If you simply looked at a week where the average price dropped sharply, it would be easy to assume values were crashing.
But that's not what these numbers necessarily tell us.
What we're seeing instead is a difference in which price ranges are actually turning over.
Lower-priced San Ramon homes naturally have a larger pool of buyers who can qualify for them.
As mortgage rates increase, the monthly-payment difference becomes even more significant as prices rise.
That means higher price ranges can experience more friction while lower-priced homes continue moving.
The average pending price this week was only $1.602 million, despite the average active listing being priced at more than $1.9 million.
That's a substantial gap.
It doesn't prove that every higher-priced home is struggling because of interest rates.
But it is consistent with what we've been seeing on the ground: affordability pressure becomes increasingly noticeable as the purchase price rises.
What Is the Stock Market Telling Us?
The technology-heavy QQQ ETF continues to be one of the brighter economic indicators for our local housing market.
QQQ finished October 9 at approximately $751, essentially flat from the previous Friday but still near its recent highs.
That's important in San Ramon and throughout the Tri-Valley because technology employment, stock compensation and investment portfolios contribute significantly to the purchasing power of many local buyers.
A strong technology sector can't completely overcome high mortgage rates.
But it does help explain why buyer purchasing power—and ultimately home values—have remained more resilient than you might expect from such a low-turnover housing market.
Mortgage Rates Reach 7.40%
Unfortunately, mortgage rates continue to move in the wrong direction.
Freddie Mac reported the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.40% for the week of October 8, up from 7.28% the week before. That's the highest weekly average since November 2023.
Rates first moved back above 7% in late September and have continued climbing since then.
At San Ramon home prices, the impact can be substantial.
The higher the purchase price, the larger the loan is likely to be—and the more expensive every increase in interest rates becomes.
That's one reason we're continuing to see relatively more activity toward the lower end of the market.
The cost of borrowing money is becoming a bigger obstacle as the purchase price increases.
What Does This Mean for San Ramon Home Sellers?
For sellers, today's market requires an honest understanding of your price range.
A $1.4 million home and a $2.5 million home may technically exist in the same San Ramon market, but they're not necessarily competing in the same environment.
The buyer pools are different.
The financing requirements are different.
And the impact of today's mortgage rates is different.
If you're selling at a higher price point, you need to pay particularly close attention to:
Your direct competition
Condition and presentation
Recent sales in your specific price range
How long competing homes have been sitting
Price reductions
What your asking price translates into as a monthly payment
Lower inventory helps.
But low inventory alone won't force buyers to purchase a home they don't believe represents good value.
What Does This Mean for San Ramon Home Buyers?
For buyers, the biggest challenge remains affordability.
At 7.40%, financing a home is significantly more expensive than it was when rates were sitting in the mid-6% range earlier this year.
But higher rates can also change the negotiating environment.
Homes at higher price points that aren't attracting enough buyers may provide opportunities to negotiate on price or other terms.
Lower-priced, well-presented homes can still create competition.
That's why a buyer's strategy should continue to depend on the specific property.
You may have tremendous leverage on one house and almost none on another.
This Week's San Ramon Market Takeaway
The San Ramon housing market continues to plod along.
Inventory is relatively low.
Turnover has improved somewhat.
Homes continue to close very close to their asking prices.
And despite a year of sluggish sales activity, home values have held up impressively well.
The most pressing issue right now is the cost of borrowing money.
Mortgage rates at 7.40% create real affordability pressure.
And if rates continue climbing—or simply remain this high for an extended period—that pressure could eventually begin affecting home values more noticeably.
So far, that hasn't happened in a significant way.
One reason is that many homeowners entered this period with substantial equity and mortgage payments based on much lower rates.
That reduces the number of owners who are forced to sell and helps keep inventory constrained.
At the same time, strong technology-sector wealth continues to support an important portion of our local buyer pool.
The result is a strange but remarkably resilient market:
Very few homes are selling, but the homes that do sell are generally maintaining their value.
The question heading toward the end of the year is how long that balance can hold if borrowing costs remain this high.
Frequently Asked Questions About the San Ramon Housing Market
How high are mortgage rates right now?
Freddie Mac reported the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.40% on October 8, 2026, up from 7.28% the prior week and the highest weekly average since November 2023.
Is San Ramon housing inventory low?
Inventory is currently at 56 homes, which is below 60 for the second consecutive week. While that isn't historically extreme, it is considerably lower than the inventory levels San Ramon experienced through much of the spring and summer.
Are higher-priced San Ramon homes struggling?
We're seeing more evidence of slower activity at higher price points. This week's average pending home was priced at approximately $1.602 million compared with an average active asking price above $1.9 million. That doesn't mean every expensive home will struggle, but higher financing costs create increasingly significant affordability challenges as prices rise.
Are San Ramon home prices falling?
Not broadly based on the indicators we're tracking. Transaction volume remains slow, but homes that close continue to sell very close to their asking prices. Weekly average prices can move substantially depending on the mix of properties that happen to close.
Is San Ramon a buyer's market?
Not across the board. Buyers may have significant negotiating leverage on some homes, especially at higher price points or on properties that have been sitting. Other homes still attract competition. This remains a very property-specific market.
Is now a good time to sell a home in San Ramon?
That depends heavily on your home, your price range and your goals.
Low inventory can benefit sellers, but today's higher mortgage rates make buyers increasingly selective.
Knowing exactly where your home fits within its competition is critical.
Wondering What This Market Means for Your Home?
Market statistics tell us what's happening across San Ramon, but they can't tell you exactly what your home is worth or what strategy makes the most sense for your family.
If you're thinking about selling—or simply want to understand your options—we're happy to sit down with you, look at your home and the current market, and help you create a plan.
Selling or buying a home can be stressful and confusing, but it doesn't have to be.