San Ramon Real Estate Market Update — September 25th, 2026

The San Ramon real estate market lost a little of the momentum it had been building over the past month.

Inventory increased from 60 homes to 63, new pending sales dropped from eight to four, and mortgage rates climbed back above 7%.

None of those changes by themselves are catastrophic—especially as we move into a time of year when the housing market normally slows down.

But after several weeks of encouraging movement, this week was a reminder that we're still dealing with a relatively fragile market.

Watch This Week's San Ramon Real Estate Market Update

This Week's San Ramon Real Estate Numbers

HOMES FOR SALE
This week: 63
Last week: 60

AVERAGE ASKING PRICE
This week: $1,854,000
Last week: $1,862,000

NEW PENDING SALES
This week: 4
Last week: 8

AVERAGE PENDING PRICE
This week: $2,057,000
Last week: $1,746,000

CLOSED SALES
This week: 7
Last week: 7

AVERAGE CLOSED PRICE
This week: $1,644,000
Last week: $1,756,000

The headline this week is a pause in the momentum we'd been building.

Inventory increased for the first time in several weeks, pending activity dropped, and mortgage rates crossed back above 7%.

Let's take a closer look at what the broader market indicators are telling us.

San Ramon Housing Inventory Increases to 63 Homes

Inventory had been steadily declining for about a month, but that trend paused this week.

We moved from 60 homes for sale to 63.

Three additional homes certainly isn't a dramatic increase.

More importantly, the change wasn't necessarily caused by a flood of new listings. Only four homes went pending this week, so there simply wasn't enough buyer activity to continue pulling inventory lower.

I still expect inventory to generally decline as we move toward the holidays.

Fall typically brings fewer new listings, and many homeowners who don't need to sell choose to wait until spring.

So I don't see one week of increasing inventory as a major change in direction yet.

But after several weeks of improvement, it's something worth watching.

San Ramon Turnover Drops Back Below 40%

The combination of higher inventory and fewer pending sales pushed our turnover indicator backward.

Turnover is now back below 40% of what I consider normal for this time of year.

Only four homes went pending this week compared with eight last week.

That's a disappointing number, but it's also one that can change relatively quickly when transaction volume is this low.

If San Ramon produces a solid week of pending sales while inventory stays around its current level—or begins falling again—our turnover indicator could improve significantly.

That's one of the challenges with a market this small.

A handful of transactions can dramatically change the weekly statistics.

Are San Ramon Homes Selling Over Asking Again?

While inventory and turnover moved in the wrong direction, our over/under asking indicator improved.

For the first time in more than a month, the average moved slightly back into positive territory, meaning homes that closed were selling above their asking prices on average.

I wouldn't read too much into that shift yet.

Our sale-to-list-price numbers have generally remained within roughly 1% above or below asking.

That's still the range that matters to me.

It suggests buyers and sellers remain relatively close in their expectations, rather than one side having a huge negotiating advantage.

Still, after several weeks below asking, moving back into positive territory is a welcome improvement.

What Is Happening With San Ramon Home Prices?

Interestingly, the improvement in our over/under number came while the average closing price moved lower.

That actually makes sense.

In a slower market, lower-priced homes tend to have a deeper pool of potential buyers.

That can make those properties more likely to attract competition and occasionally multiple offers.

Higher-priced homes, meanwhile, generally have fewer qualified buyers and can require more time or negotiation.

So seeing a lower average closing price at the same time our sale-to-list-price ratio improves isn't necessarily contradictory.

It may simply mean the homes generating the strongest competition this week were concentrated at lower price points.

That's why average price and sale-to-list-price need to be looked at together rather than independently.

What Is the Stock Market Telling Us?

The technology-heavy QQQ ETF had a strong week, finishing September 24 roughly 3% above its September 18 close and remaining near its recent highs.

That's important for San Ramon and the broader Tri-Valley.

Technology employment, stock compensation and investment portfolios are significant sources of purchasing power for many buyers in our area.

When tech stocks perform well, it can increase confidence and provide additional funds for down payments.

That doesn't eliminate the affordability challenges created by higher mortgage rates.

But a strong technology sector continues to provide an important source of support for our local buyer pool.

Mortgage Rates Climb Back Above 7%

Unfortunately, the biggest concern this week is mortgage rates.

Freddie Mac reported the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.03% on September 24, up from 6.95% the previous week. That's the first reading above 7% since January 2025.

And at San Ramon price points, that matters.

Higher rates increase monthly payments and reduce purchasing power.

They can force buyers to lower their target price range or increase the size of their down payment.

They can also discourage existing homeowners with much lower mortgage rates from selling and taking on new financing.

The Federal Reserve's next scheduled policy meeting is October 27–28, but the direction of future policy—and mortgage rates—is not predetermined.

For the housing market, the important number right now is simple:

We're back above 7%.

What Does This Mean for San Ramon Home Sellers?

For sellers, this week's numbers reinforce why pricing and preparation remain so important.

Inventory is still dramatically lower than it was earlier this summer, which means sellers have less competition than they did a few months ago.

But buyers are also dealing with significantly higher borrowing costs.

That means they can be even more sensitive to value.

A buyer isn't only looking at your asking price.

They're looking at what that price translates into as a monthly payment.

And when mortgage rates climb, the same house becomes more expensive to own even if the asking price doesn't change.

Your home needs to justify that payment.

Condition, presentation, location and pricing all become increasingly important when affordability is under pressure.

What Does This Mean for San Ramon Home Buyers?

For buyers, rates above 7% obviously aren't welcome.

But the slower overall market can still create opportunities.

Only four homes went pending this week.

That tells us buyers aren't competing aggressively for every property.

A home that has been sitting on the market may give you opportunities to negotiate on price, closing costs, credits or other terms.

And those negotiations become particularly important when financing costs are elevated.

At the same time, this week's over/under numbers remind us that some homes can still attract competition.

That's why we've continued to describe this as a property-specific market.

The strategy for a house that's been sitting for 45 days should look very different from the strategy for an attractive new listing that just came onto the market.

This Week's San Ramon Market Takeaway

This was a down week for the San Ramon housing market.

But it wasn't dramatically worse than several weeks we've experienced earlier this year.

What makes it feel different is the timing.

Over the past month, we had finally begun building some momentum.

Inventory was steadily declining.

Turnover was improving.

Pending sales were becoming more consistent.

Then this week:

Inventory increased.

Pending sales dropped.

Turnover fell back below 40%.

And mortgage rates moved above 7%.

That's enough to take some of the wind out of the market's sails.

But there's also some perspective worth keeping.

September is normally a slower month.

We're moving toward the fall and holiday market, when both buyers and sellers traditionally become less active.

And because transaction volume is already so low, it won't take a dramatic change to improve the numbers again.

A solid week of pending sales could quickly move several of our indicators back in the right direction.

So I don't see this week as evidence that the market has suddenly changed course.

I see it as a reminder that the recovery in momentum we've been watching remains fragile.

For now, the biggest thing I'm watching isn't inventory.

It isn't even turnover.

It's whether mortgage rates remain above 7%—and how San Ramon buyers respond if they do.

Frequently Asked Questions About the San Ramon Housing Market

Is San Ramon housing inventory increasing again?

Inventory increased from 60 homes to 63 this week after declining for roughly a month. One week doesn't establish a new trend, and inventory typically falls as we move toward the holidays, so I'll be watching whether this increase continues.

Is the San Ramon real estate market slowing down?

This week was slower. Only four homes went pending compared with eight the week before, and our turnover indicator fell back below 40% of normal. However, one week's numbers can move dramatically because San Ramon's current transaction volume is relatively low.

Are San Ramon homes selling over asking price?

This week's average moved slightly above asking for the first time in more than a month. However, the market has generally remained within roughly 1% above or below asking, so individual property characteristics still matter much more than the citywide average.

What are mortgage rates right now?

Freddie Mac reported the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.03% on September 24, 2026, up from 6.95% the previous week.

Do higher mortgage rates mean San Ramon home prices will fall?

Not necessarily. Mortgage rates affect affordability and purchasing power, but home prices are also influenced by inventory, buyer demand, property type, location and other factors. San Ramon inventory remains relatively limited compared with its summer peak.

Is now a good time to sell a home in San Ramon?

That depends heavily on your individual property and goals.

Lower inventory can help sellers, but higher mortgage rates make buyers more sensitive to value.

Understanding exactly how your home compares with the competition is especially important in the current market.

Wondering What This Market Means for Your Home?

Market statistics tell us what's happening across San Ramon, but they can't tell you exactly what your home is worth or what strategy makes the most sense for your family.

If you're thinking about selling—or simply want to understand your options—we're happy to sit down with you, look at your home and the current market, and help you create a plan.

Selling or buying a home can be stressful and confusing, but it doesn't have to be.