On paper, the San Ramon real estate market improved again this week.
Inventory fell from 57 homes to 52, eight more homes went pending, turnover improved, and mortgage rates declined for the second consecutive week.
Those are all encouraging numbers.
But as we move into November and the traditional holiday slowdown begins, there's an important question we need to ask:
Are improving market indicators actually telling us that the market is getting stronger—or are they simply reflecting fewer homes being available for sale?
Watch This Week's San Ramon Real Estate Market Update
This Week's San Ramon Real Estate Numbers
HOMES FOR SALE
This week: 52
Last week: 57
AVERAGE ASKING PRICE
This week: $1,960,000
Last week: $1,914,000
NEW PENDING SALES
This week: 8
Last week: 8
AVERAGE PENDING PRICE
This week: $1,586,000
Last week: $1,643,000
CLOSED SALES
This week: 6
Last week: 5
AVERAGE CLOSED PRICE
This week: $1,802,000
Last week: $1,968,000
The headline this week is improving statistics—but with some important context behind them.
Inventory continues to fall, turnover is moving in the right direction and rates have declined again.
But the approaching holiday season could make some of those numbers look healthier even while the actual number of transactions remains relatively low.
Let's take a closer look.
San Ramon Housing Inventory Falls to 52 Homes
Inventory dropped by another five homes this week, moving from 57 to 52 active and coming-soon properties.
That's a significant improvement from where we were earlier this year.
What's particularly interesting this week is that our coming-soon inventory also declined.
That suggests the reduction isn't simply being caused by buyers putting homes into contract.
Fewer new properties are also preparing to enter the market.
And that's exactly what I would expect as we move into November.
Many homeowners who don't absolutely need to sell will avoid putting their homes on the market during Thanksgiving, Christmas and the rest of the holiday season.
So I expect inventory to continue coming down through the end of the year.
For sellers who remain on the market, that means less competition.
For buyers, it means fewer homes to choose from.
But—and this becomes important later—lower inventory doesn't automatically mean stronger demand.
San Ramon Turnover Climbs Toward 50%
Lower inventory also helped our turnover indicator improve.
At one point during the week, turnover moved back above 50% of what I consider normal, before settling into the mid-40% range by the end of the week.
That's considerably better than the sub-35% level we were dealing with only a couple of weeks ago.
Eight new pending sales certainly helped.
But declining inventory is doing a lot of the work too.
If eight homes continue going pending each week while the total number of available homes falls from 57 to 52 to somewhere in the 40s, the turnover percentage naturally improves.
That's good.
But it doesn't necessarily mean suddenly twice as many buyers are entering the market.
The denominator is shrinking.
Ideally, I'd like to see turnover continue working its way toward a more sustainable level closer to what we experience in a healthy San Ramon market.
But as we head through the holidays, we need to distinguish between turnover improving because demand increased and turnover improving because supply disappeared.
One Sale Is Distorting San Ramon's Over/Under Number
Our sale-to-list-price indicator continued moving farther below asking this week.
But this is a perfect example of why I don't like looking at one statistic without understanding what's behind it.
One home included in our current rolling average closed more than $200,000 below its asking price, despite spending less than a week on the market.
When you're dealing with such a small number of transactions, one sale like that can dramatically affect an average.
And because I track this statistic using a 30-day rolling average, that transaction will continue affecting the number for the next several weeks.
That doesn't mean we should ignore it.
The sale happened, so it belongs in the data.
But it does mean we should understand why the number moved.
One unusual transaction does not necessarily represent what is happening to every San Ramon home.
Once that sale works its way out of the 30-day calculation, I would expect this indicator to move back toward the range we've seen throughout most of the year—assuming we don't see additional large discounts.
What Is Happening With San Ramon Home Prices?
Interestingly, the same transaction pulling our over/under statistic downward is having almost the opposite effect on our average sales price.
That property was one of two homes above $2 million that closed this week.
As a result, our 30-day average closing price improved by approximately $44,000 and is once again sitting around the $1.8 million range.
That's much more consistent with our broader average for the year.
Again, this is why context matters.
You could look at the over/under indicator and conclude that sellers are suddenly accepting huge discounts.
Or you could look at the average sales price and conclude that values are suddenly rising.
Neither conclusion tells the entire story.
The real story is that we're dealing with a very small number of transactions, and individual sales can move these averages substantially.
That makes property-specific analysis even more important.
What Is the Stock Market Telling Us?
The technology-heavy QQQ ETF had another volatile week.
By Thursday's close, QQQ had risen to $715.34 compared with $704.40 the previous Friday—an improvement of roughly 1.6%.
Then Friday happened.
QQQ fell sharply to $690.49, leaving it approximately 2% below the previous Friday's close.
That's worth monitoring because technology employment, stock compensation and investment portfolios remain important sources of purchasing power for San Ramon and Tri-Valley buyers.
But just like our housing statistics, one week of market volatility doesn't establish a long-term trend.
What matters more is whether weakness continues.
For now, QQQ remains one of the indicators I'll continue watching alongside mortgage rates because both can have a meaningful impact on buyer confidence and down-payment funds.
Mortgage Rates Decline for the Second Week in a Row
Fortunately, we can end the economic indicators with some positive news.
Mortgage rates declined again.
Freddie Mac reported the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.24% on October 29, down from 7.32% the previous week.
That's an 8-basis-point improvement for the second consecutive week:
7.40% → 7.32% → 7.24%.
We're still a long way from rates that would dramatically change affordability in San Ramon.
But direction matters.
After watching rates climb throughout September and early October, two consecutive weeks of decreases are encouraging.
At San Ramon prices, borrowing costs remain one of the largest obstacles preventing the market from gaining significant momentum.
So while 7.24% isn't a great mortgage rate, I'd much rather see the line moving toward 7% than toward 8%.
What Does This Mean for San Ramon Home Sellers?
For sellers, declining inventory sounds like excellent news.
And it can be.
If fewer homeowners list during November and December, your property may face significantly less competition.
But sellers need to understand the distinction between less supply and more demand.
We're not necessarily seeing a flood of new buyers entering the market.
We're seeing fewer homes available for the buyers who are already here.
That can absolutely benefit a well-positioned property.
But it doesn't eliminate the need for:
Thoughtful pricing
Good preparation
Strong presentation
Professional marketing
An honest understanding of the competition
The best homes can still attract immediate interest.
But a home that isn't connecting with buyers won't automatically become desirable simply because inventory falls.
What Does This Mean for San Ramon Home Buyers?
For buyers, this is where the improving market statistics can be a little misleading.
Turnover may rise as inventory falls.
But that doesn't necessarily mean you're suddenly entering a highly competitive seller's market.
There are still homes that have been sitting.
There are still sellers willing to negotiate.
And we're still seeing individual transactions close meaningfully below asking.
At the same time, fewer new listings means buyers may have to wait longer for the right home to become available.
So there's a tradeoff.
You may have more negotiating leverage than you've had in years.
But you may also have fewer properties worth negotiating over.
Patience remains extremely valuable in this market.
This Week's San Ramon Market Takeaway
Fall is when the San Ramon housing market normally begins winding down.
And the biggest slowdown usually becomes noticeable in November.
Homeowners don't necessarily want to keep their homes spotless and available for showings while they're trying to host Thanksgiving, travel, decorate or prepare for Christmas.
So many sellers simply pull their properties from the market or wait until the new year to list.
That creates an interesting dynamic.
Our market statistics may actually begin looking better as the market itself becomes quieter.
Inventory falls.
That improves turnover.
Older listings disappear.
That can improve some of our other ratios.
But none of those changes necessarily mean more people are buying houses.
That's why this week's headline is so important:
The indicators are improving—but they don't necessarily tell the whole story.
The encouraging part is that lower inventory can help create a healthier foundation.
If we enter 2027 with fewer stale listings, slightly lower mortgage rates and buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines, we could begin the spring market from a much cleaner starting point than we had this year.
That's what I'll be watching over the next couple of months.
Not simply whether our percentages improve.
But whether the underlying demand begins improving with them.
Frequently Asked Questions About the San Ramon Housing Market
Is San Ramon housing inventory falling?
Yes. Inventory fell from 57 homes to 52 this week, and the number of coming-soon listings also declined. With the holiday season approaching, I expect fewer homeowners to list and overall inventory to continue coming down.
Is the San Ramon real estate market getting stronger?
Some indicators are improving, particularly inventory and turnover. However, part of that improvement is being caused by fewer homes being available rather than a dramatic increase in buyer demand. The underlying market remains relatively slow.
Are San Ramon homes selling below asking?
On average, the sale-to-list-price number has moved farther below asking recently. However, one property that sold more than $200,000 below asking is having an outsized impact on the 30-day rolling average because transaction volume is so low.
Are San Ramon home prices increasing?
Our 30-day average closing price increased by roughly $44,000 this week and is back around the $1.8 million range. However, a small number of higher-priced sales contributed significantly to that increase, so it shouldn't be interpreted as every San Ramon home's value increasing.
Are mortgage rates coming down?
They have declined for two consecutive weeks. Freddie Mac reported the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.24% on October 29, down from 7.32% the prior week and 7.40% two weeks earlier.
Will the San Ramon market slow down during the holidays?
Historically, November and December tend to bring fewer listings and fewer transactions as both buyers and sellers shift their attention toward the holidays. That seasonal slowdown can reduce inventory even if buyer demand doesn't increase.
Is now a good time to buy a home in San Ramon?
For buyers who can comfortably handle today's financing costs, the slower market can offer more negotiating leverage and less competition. The tradeoff is that declining inventory may mean fewer desirable homes are available.
Is now a good time to sell a home in San Ramon?
For the right property, lower inventory can create an advantage because sellers face less competition. But buyers remain selective, so pricing, preparation and presentation are still critical.
Wondering What This Market Means for Your Home?
Market statistics tell us what's happening across San Ramon, but they can't tell you exactly what your home is worth or what strategy makes the most sense for your family.
If you're thinking about selling—or simply want to understand your options—we're happy to sit down with you, look at your home and the current market, and help you create a plan.
Selling or buying a home can be stressful and confusing, but it doesn't have to be.