The midterms are over—and at least we don't have to deal with those campaign text messages anymore.
But there's a more important question for San Ramon homeowners and buyers:
Will the election results have any meaningful impact on our local housing market?
This week certainly didn't provide an immediate post-election boost.
Only three San Ramon homes went pending, turnover fell sharply, and the technology-heavy QQQ finished the week nearly 5% lower.
At the same time, mortgage rates moved slightly lower and inventory held steady despite very weak buyer activity.
So, as usual, the story is more complicated than one headline.
Watch This Week's San Ramon Real Estate Market Update
This Week's San Ramon Real Estate Numbers
HOMES FOR SALE
This week: 52
Last week: 52
AVERAGE ASKING PRICE
This week: $1,901,000
Last week: $1,960,000
NEW PENDING SALES
This week: 3
Last week: 8
AVERAGE PENDING PRICE
This week: $1,988,000
Last week: $1,586,000
CLOSED SALES
This week: 10
Last week: 6
AVERAGE CLOSED PRICE
This week: $1,921,000
Last week: $1,868,000
The headline this week is very weak buyer activity without a corresponding increase in inventory.
Only three homes went pending.
Normally, that would put upward pressure on the number of homes for sale.
Instead, inventory stayed exactly the same because so few new sellers are entering the market.
Let's take a closer look at what the broader indicators are telling us.
San Ramon Housing Inventory Holds at 52 Homes
We had an extremely slow week on both sides of the market.
Only three homes went pending, but inventory remained unchanged at 52 homes.
That's important.
During the spring or summer, three pending sales in a week would likely result in inventory climbing because new listings would continue coming onto the market faster than buyers were absorbing them.
That's not what's happening in November.
Homeowners are becoming increasingly reluctant to put their homes on the market as Thanksgiving and the holidays approach.
So even with very little buyer activity, we're also getting very little new supply.
I expect that trend to continue through the end of the year.
Inventory can continue falling even without stronger buyer demand simply because fewer sellers want to list during the holidays.
San Ramon Turnover Falls Back to 33%
Unfortunately, three pending sales were not enough to keep our turnover indicator moving in the right direction.
Turnover fell from approximately 44% of normal to 33% this week.
That's a significant step backward.
I had expected declining inventory to help keep turnover improving as we moved toward the holidays.
I was right about one part of that prediction: fewer homes are entering the market.
What I underestimated was just how much pending activity could slow down too.
At 33%, we're clearly in a low-turnover environment.
The good news is that inventory remains relatively limited, so it won't take a huge increase in pending activity to make the percentage improve.
But for now, there's no way around it:
This is a very slow San Ramon housing market.
Are San Ramon Buyers Gaining More Leverage?
Our over/under asking indicator continues hovering close to 2% below asking price.
Homes are currently closing roughly $30,000 below asking on average based on the rolling numbers I've been tracking.
That's still a relatively narrow gap at San Ramon price points.
But it's noticeably different from earlier this year, when our average repeatedly bounced back and forth across the asking-price line.
As we get closer to 2% below asking, I think we're beginning to see more evidence that buyers have a negotiating advantage.
That doesn't mean we've entered a traditional buyer's market.
Some homes still attract immediate interest and strong offers.
But on properties that have been sitting for weeks—or months—buyers often have considerably more leverage than they've had in a long time.
Price isn't the only place that leverage can show up either.
Buyers can potentially negotiate:
Credits
Repairs
Contingencies
Closing timelines
Seller-paid costs
Other terms that were much harder to request during faster markets
The longer a home has been sitting, the more important those conversations can become.
What Is Happening With San Ramon Home Prices?
Interestingly, our average sales price improved even while the sale-to-list-price number weakened.
Our 30-day average closing price remains in the $1.8 million range, which is relatively consistent with the broader average we've seen during 2026.
Based on the numbers I've been tracking throughout the year, we're currently trending toward an annual average sales price roughly $120,000 below last year.
But that doesn't mean every San Ramon homeowner lost $120,000 in value.
The mix of homes selling matters enormously.
We've seen periods this year when lower-priced homes accounted for a larger percentage of transactions simply because those homes had deeper buyer pools.
We've also seen individual weeks where a few higher-priced closings dramatically increased the average.
With transaction volume this low, the average price needs to be treated as one indicator—not a universal measure of every home's value.
What Did the Midterms Do to Technology Stocks?
This is where this week's election becomes relevant to San Ramon.
QQQ closed October 30 at $690.49 and finished November 6 at $656.10—a decline of almost 5% for the week.
But the timing matters.
The broad stock market actually rallied immediately after the election. On November 4, the S&P 500 gained 1.6%, the Nasdaq rose 1.4%, and investors initially responded positively to the reduction in political uncertainty.
The technology sector then experienced a much more difficult reaction as investors began considering what the election results could mean for AI infrastructure and data-center development.
Data centers became a significant political issue during the midterms, particularly in several high-profile state and local races. Democratic candidates who supported tighter regulation or restrictions won a number of important races, and voters approved restrictions in dozens of local referendums.
But it's important not to overstate that.
Data centers were not the top issue for most voters nationally, and opposition to new data centers crossed party lines in many communities. Affordability and other economic concerns played a larger role in the election overall.
For our housing market, I'm less interested in the politics of whether additional data-center regulation is good or bad.
The question I'm watching is economic:
Does it meaningfully slow investment and wealth creation in the technology sector that supports so much of our Tri-Valley buyer pool?
It's far too early to answer that.
But after the role technology stocks have played in supporting local purchasing power, it's worth watching closely.
Mortgage Rates Continue Moving Lower
We did get some good news this week.
Mortgage rates declined for the third consecutive week.
Freddie Mac reported the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.18% on November 5, down from 7.24% last week.
The recent trend now looks like:
7.40% → 7.32% → 7.24% → 7.18%.
We're still above 7%, so this hasn't been enough to dramatically improve affordability.
But the direction is encouraging.
At San Ramon price points, we need a much more substantial decline before financing costs begin changing buyer behavior in a major way.
Still, I'd much rather have rates slowly moving toward 7% than back toward 7.5%.
What Does This Mean for San Ramon Home Sellers?
For sellers, the most important number this week may actually be the lack of new inventory.
There are only 52 active and coming-soon homes in the market.
That means you're competing against far fewer properties than sellers faced earlier this year.
But low inventory isn't enough by itself.
Buyer activity is also extremely low.
Only three homes went pending this week.
So sellers need to approach this market realistically.
The goal isn't simply to be one of the few homes available. It's to be one of the few homes buyers actually want.
Condition, pricing, presentation and marketing remain critical.
And if your home has already been sitting on the market for an extended period, you need to understand that buyers know they may have leverage.
What Does This Mean for San Ramon Home Buyers?
For buyers, this is one of the strongest negotiating environments we've seen in quite some time.
That doesn't mean every home is cheap.
It doesn't mean sellers are desperate.
And it definitely doesn't mean San Ramon is experiencing a fire sale.
Many homeowners have substantial equity and low existing mortgage rates, which means they're often under very little pressure to sell.
That's an important limitation on buyer leverage.
But when you find a seller who genuinely wants or needs to make a move—and their home has been sitting—you may have significantly more negotiating power than you would have had several years ago.
The tradeoff is inventory.
There are only 52 homes available.
So buyers have more leverage, but fewer choices.
The best strategy is patience.
Wait for the right property, understand the seller's position, and then negotiate based on the specific situation.
This Week's San Ramon Market Takeaway
There is always a lot of discussion about what happens to the economy after an election.
The midterms happened this week.
And there was certainly no immediate surge in the San Ramon housing market.
Only three homes went pending.
Turnover fell to 33%.
QQQ ended the week roughly 5% lower.
But I wouldn't draw a straight line from Tuesday's election results to San Ramon home values.
The post-election stock market reaction was mixed.
The broad market initially rallied, while technology and AI-related companies experienced more pressure as investors began digesting the potential policy implications of the election.
The housing market itself is also entering November—historically one of the slowest parts of the year.
So there are several forces moving at the same time.
The encouraging pieces are:
Inventory remains low.
Mortgage rates have declined for three straight weeks.
Average closing prices remain relatively stable.
And buyers who have been waiting for a more favorable negotiating environment finally have one.
The biggest question heading toward 2027 isn't whether one election instantly improves or hurts the San Ramon housing market.
It's whether the pieces that actually drive our local market begin moving in the right direction:
Mortgage rates. Tech-sector wealth. Inventory. Buyer confidence. And affordability.
Those are the numbers I'm going to keep watching.
Frequently Asked Questions About the San Ramon Housing Market
Did the midterm election hurt the San Ramon real estate market?
It's too early to make that conclusion. San Ramon had a very slow week, but we're also entering the normal holiday slowdown. Technology stocks experienced significant post-election volatility, but the broader stock market initially rallied following the results. Housing trends should be evaluated over several weeks rather than attributed to one election.
Did data-center regulation become a major issue in the midterms?
It became a significant campaign issue in a number of races, and many successful candidates supported additional regulation or restrictions. However, it wasn't the top national issue for most voters, and opposition to data-center development crossed party lines in many communities.
Is San Ramon becoming a buyer's market?
Buyers clearly have more negotiating leverage than they have had in recent years, particularly on properties that have been sitting. However, low inventory and homeowners with substantial equity continue to limit how much leverage buyers have overall.
Are San Ramon homes selling below asking?
Yes. Our rolling average is currently approaching roughly 2% below asking, which is beginning to show more evidence of a buyer advantage. Individual results still vary dramatically depending on the property.
Are San Ramon home prices falling?
The annual average is currently trending lower than last year, but that does not mean every San Ramon home has declined by the same amount. Low transaction volume and changes in the mix of homes selling have a significant influence on average prices.
Are mortgage rates coming down?
Yes, gradually. Freddie Mac reported a 30-year fixed average of 7.18% on November 5, down from 7.24% last week and 7.40% three weeks earlier.
Is now a good time to buy a home in San Ramon?
For buyers who can comfortably handle current financing costs, this is one of the better negotiating environments we've seen in years. Competition is relatively low, although inventory is also limited.
Is now a good time to sell a home in San Ramon?
It depends heavily on the individual property.
Sellers face less competition because inventory is low, but buyer activity is also weak. Homes that are thoughtfully prepared, presented and priced still have a much better chance of standing out.
Wondering What This Market Means for Your Home?
Market statistics tell us what's happening across San Ramon, but they can't tell you exactly what your home is worth or what strategy makes the most sense for your family.
If you're thinking about selling—or simply want to understand your options—we're happy to sit down with you, look at your home and the current market, and help you create a plan.
Selling or buying a home can be stressful and confusing, but it doesn't have to be.