We're less than two weeks away from Thanksgiving, and the San Ramon real estate market is starting to hibernate.
Inventory dropped from 52 homes to 47 this week, but only four homes went pending. That means the declining inventory isn't being driven by stronger buyer demand—it's largely being driven by fewer homeowners choosing to sell.
At the same time, homes are moving farther below asking price and our 30-day average closing price has slipped back below $1.8 million.
Those aren't particularly strong market signals.
But mortgage rates continue to move lower, and the technology sector recovered some ground after several turbulent weeks.
Watch This Week's San Ramon Real Estate Market Update
This Week's San Ramon Real Estate Numbers
HOMES FOR SALE
This week: 47
Last week: 52
AVERAGE ASKING PRICE
This week: $1,931,000
Last week: $1,910,000
NEW PENDING SALES
This week: 4
Last week: 3
AVERAGE PENDING PRICE
This week: $1,358,000
Last week: $1,988,000
CLOSED SALES
This week: 5
Last week: 10
AVERAGE CLOSED PRICE
This week: $1,435,000
Last week: $1,921,000
The headline this week is the beginning of the holiday slowdown.
Inventory is falling, but buyer activity isn't really improving.
And that's an important distinction as we look at what the market indicators are telling us.
San Ramon Housing Inventory Falls Below 50 Homes
Inventory continued its decline this week, falling from 52 homes to 47 active and coming-soon properties.
That's another five-home reduction.
But only four homes went pending.
That tells us something important.
At least some of the inventory reduction came from sellers removing their properties from the market rather than buyers purchasing them.
And that's exactly what I would expect as we approach Thanksgiving.
Homeowners who don't absolutely need to sell often decide they'd rather take their homes off the market than deal with showings, cleaning, travel and holiday plans.
New listings also tend to slow dramatically.
So I expect inventory to continue falling through Thanksgiving and into December.
For sellers who remain on the market, that means less competition.
But lower inventory alone doesn't mean we've suddenly created stronger buyer demand.
San Ramon Turnover Improves Slightly
Our turnover indicator actually improved slightly this week despite another weak week of pending sales.
That's because inventory is falling faster than buyer activity.
We're still below 40% of what I consider normal turnover, so this remains an extremely slow market.
But at least the number isn't continuing to spiral downward.
This is also where holiday-season statistics can become somewhat deceptive.
As sellers withdraw their listings and fewer new properties enter the market, inventory declines.
If the number of pending sales simply remains stable, turnover improves mathematically.
That can make the market look healthier on paper even though transaction activity hasn't really changed.
The ratio is improving because there are fewer homes available—not necessarily because there are significantly more buyers.
Are San Ramon Buyers Gaining the Advantage?
Our over/under asking indicator continued moving deeper into negative territory this week.
For most of the year, I've looked at roughly 2% above or below asking as a practical neutral range.
Inside that range, I don't see enough separation between asking and closing prices to say the overall market clearly favors buyers or sellers.
We're now beginning to move beyond that range on the under-asking side.
And that's meaningful.
It doesn't mean we're suddenly in a dramatic buyer's market.
We're not seeing widespread fire-sale pricing.
But the numbers are beginning to show more consistent negotiating leverage for buyers.
That's particularly true on homes that have been sitting for an extended period.
The longer a property has been available without selling, the more likely a seller may be willing to discuss price, credits, repairs or other terms.
What Is Happening With San Ramon Home Prices?
Our 30-day average closing price moved back below $1.8 million this week.
Based on the homes that have recently closed and the properties currently pending, I wouldn't be surprised to see that average bounce back and forth across the $1.8 million threshold over the next several weeks.
Again, low transaction volume matters.
Only five homes closed this week.
And the average closing price of those five was just $1.435 million.
Four homes went pending with an average asking price of $1.358 million.
When only a handful of transactions are occurring, the mix of homes selling can move our citywide averages dramatically.
So I wouldn't look at this week's number and conclude that every San Ramon home suddenly lost value.
But combined with homes moving farther below asking, it does reinforce the fact that buyers have become increasingly selective.
What Is the Stock Market Telling Us?
The technology sector has experienced significant turbulence over the past several weeks.
Political pressure surrounding AI infrastructure and data-center development has increased, while Nvidia experienced a major leadership shakeup this week with CEO Jensen Huang stepping down and CFO Colette Kress taking over on an interim basis.
Those kinds of headlines matter locally because technology employment, stock compensation and investment portfolios are significant sources of purchasing power for San Ramon and Tri-Valley buyers.
The encouraging news is that QQQ actually recovered this week.
QQQ closed November 6 at $656.10 and finished November 13 at $679.89—an increase of approximately 3.6% for the week.
That's encouraging after the weakness we've seen recently.
It doesn't eliminate the uncertainty surrounding the technology sector.
But a recovery in QQQ despite all of the negative headlines suggests investors aren't abandoning technology altogether.
And that's important for our local housing market.
Mortgage Rates Fall for a Fourth Consecutive Week
Mortgage rates also gave us another bit of good news.
Freddie Mac reported the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.11% on November 12, down from 7.18% the week before. That marks the fourth consecutive weekly decline.
The recent progression now looks like:
7.40% → 7.32% → 7.24% → 7.18% → 7.11%.
We're still above 7%.
So we haven't reached a point where rates are going to suddenly unlock a huge group of buyers and dramatically accelerate the market.
But direction matters.
Every move lower improves affordability slightly.
And if that trend can continue into the beginning of next year, mortgage rates could become an important piece of a stronger spring market.
What Does This Mean for San Ramon Home Sellers?
The good news for sellers is that you're facing less competition.
There are only 47 active and coming-soon homes in San Ramon.
The bad news is that there also aren't many buyers actively putting homes into contract.
Only four properties went pending this week.
That makes preparation especially important.
You can't simply rely on low inventory to create demand for your home.
Your property still needs to provide a compelling reason for buyers to choose it.
That means:
Pricing realistically
Preparing the property thoughtfully
Presenting it exceptionally well
Understanding your direct competition
Making sure buyers immediately understand the home's value
The best homes can still attract strong offers.
But in a market this slow, mistakes become increasingly expensive.
What Does This Mean for San Ramon Home Buyers?
For buyers, the market is beginning to tilt more noticeably in your direction.
Homes are selling farther below asking.
Competition is limited.
And properties that have been sitting on the market may provide opportunities to negotiate terms that would have been almost impossible during faster markets.
That doesn't mean every seller is desperate.
Many San Ramon homeowners have substantial equity and low mortgage rates, so they may simply choose not to sell rather than accept an offer they don't like.
That's one reason inventory is falling.
But if you find a seller who genuinely wants or needs to move, your negotiating position may be stronger than it has been in years.
The challenge is choice.
With only 47 homes available and fewer new listings coming, you may have to be patient waiting for the right property.
This Week's San Ramon Market Takeaway
November traditionally marks the beginning of the housing market's hibernation period.
We're seeing that now.
Most homeowners don't want to put their house on the market knowing a sale could mean negotiating, packing and moving during Thanksgiving or Christmas.
Buyers often feel the same way.
That means fewer listings.
Fewer transactions.
And less overall activity.
So it's not surprising that inventory and turnover statistics can begin looking somewhat better as we head toward the holidays.
Inventory falls because sellers stop listing—or remove homes that haven't sold.
That helps turnover mathematically.
But this week also provided some less encouraging signals.
Homes are moving farther below asking.
Our 30-day average closing price slipped back below $1.8 million.
Pending activity remains extremely low.
At the same time, there are two indicators moving in a better direction:
Mortgage rates have fallen for four consecutive weeks.
And QQQ recovered despite significant turbulence in the technology sector.
That's why I don't think there's one simple headline for this market.
We're entering the normal holiday slowdown while buyers gain some leverage and sellers increasingly choose to wait.
As we get closer to Thanksgiving, I'll be taking a few weeks away from these weekly updates.
There typically isn't much new market activity to analyze after Thanksgiving anyway, and I'll use that time to begin preparing our 2026 year-end San Ramon market review.
That will give us a chance to step back from these tiny weekly sample sizes and look at the much bigger picture of what actually happened in San Ramon real estate this year.
Frequently Asked Questions About the San Ramon Housing Market
Is the San Ramon housing market slowing down for the holidays?
Yes. November and December typically bring fewer listings and fewer transactions as buyers and sellers shift their attention toward Thanksgiving, Christmas and year-end plans. We're beginning to see that seasonal slowdown now.
Why is San Ramon inventory falling if homes aren't selling quickly?
Because fewer homeowners are listing and some existing sellers are removing their homes from the market. Inventory fell by five homes this week even though only four homes went pending.
Is San Ramon becoming a buyer's market?
We're beginning to see more evidence of a buyer advantage. Homes are moving beyond the roughly 2% under-asking range I use as a practical neutral zone, and buyers generally face much less competition than they have in recent years.
Are San Ramon home prices falling?
Our 30-day average closing price moved below $1.8 million this week, but low transaction volume makes citywide averages volatile. The types and price ranges of homes selling can move the average substantially from week to week.
Are mortgage rates still coming down?
Yes. Freddie Mac reported the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.11% on November 12, marking the fourth consecutive weekly decline.
Is the technology sector hurting the San Ramon housing market?
Technology-sector volatility can affect buyer confidence and purchasing power because tech employment and stock compensation are important throughout the Tri-Valley. However, QQQ recovered roughly 3.6% this week despite significant technology-industry headlines, so the picture remains mixed.
Is now a good time to buy a home in San Ramon?
For buyers who can comfortably handle today's financing costs, this is one of the more favorable negotiating environments we've seen in years. The downside is that holiday inventory is becoming increasingly limited.
Is now a good time to sell a home in San Ramon?
It can be for the right property. Sellers face significantly less competition as inventory falls, but buyer activity is also weak. Pricing and presentation are especially important.
Wondering What This Market Means for Your Home?
Market statistics tell us what's happening across San Ramon, but they can't tell you exactly what your home is worth or what strategy makes the most sense for your family.
If you're thinking about selling—or simply want to understand your options—we're happy to sit down with you, look at your home and the current market, and help you create a plan.
Selling or buying a home can be stressful and confusing, but it doesn't have to be.